When I drive from point A to point B I’m often calculating various life possibilities in my head. As of late, my math is focused on determining what kind of mortgage REALLY makes sense for my family. I figured $8000 a month DOESN’T make sense, but given prices of housing here are ridiculously high, I was hoping to at least get a number that felt somewhat doable.
Even though our household income should be over $400,000 this year (as long as I maintain my employment), there is absolutely no way to guarantee we’ll come close to this every year for the 30 years ahead. With my husband making $90k 1099 (I consider that $60,000 salary equivalent since it has no benefits and is taxed at a higher rate), and my income ranging in the past 10 years from $150,000 to $400,000 (total compensation), I feel fairly comfortable committing to $200k total family income for next 30 years–a combination of my husband staying in his job OR getting a job with benefits with a $60k salary minimum, and my having a job making at least $150k a year on average (which seems reasonable based on the various offers I’ve received in the past.) Theoretically our income would go up with inflation and more experience, but my husband has never asked for a raise and is not inspired to take on more clients beyond his one client, and I am fairly confident I’ll have to take a pay cut over and over again to remain gainfully employed, not to mention that I’ll likely take some time off to have kid #2 (and #3?) Plus, I figured out recently that we spend about $3500-$4000 a month not including housing on our lifestyle. Sure, we could be more frugal BUT I don’t want our housing to get in the way of being able to travel to see my family, see the world, send kids to summer camp, etc. I don’t think our lifestyle costs will go down that much as our kids get older–we’ll cut in some places and add to others.
So $200k a year in salary is $16k a month. If we max out our IRA/401k, that’s about $3k a month, leaving us with $13k pre tax, or about $8k after tax.
I think planning our next 30 years based on $8k after tax income makes a lot of sense. It still feels aggressive and scary to commit to anything based on it, but it’s not unreasonable.
If we make $8k in after tax income and our monthly expenses are $3500-$4000 a month, then we have $4000 left for a mortgage OR rent. Of course a mortgage is fixed while rent can go up over time… but let’s ignore that for now and just say that we can afford a $4000/month mortgage (including taxes, etc, esp since there are no meaningful tax deductions for real estate anymore.)
If my math is correct, IF we can put $600,000 down (50%) we can afford a $1.2M home.
But we don’t have $600k to put down, and the opportunity cost on putting that much of our life savings down will basically kill our retirement. We can put down less but then our monthly costs go up, which would significantly impact our lifestyle.
Even if we got our living costs under $2500 a month, that leaves $5.5k for a mortgage, taxes, etc MAX. That seems like better math… a $1.2M home with $300k down (more reasonable at 25% down) would be about $5.5k a month. BUT I don’t think we can find a house for that in this area — if we buy a condo, then condo fees would be on top of the mortgage, meaning we could afford less in a condo than in a house (sort of… maintenance costs in a house would eat up the HOA fees and then some.)
I keep running the numbers and I just don’t understand how anyone can afford a house here. I’m terrified of being stupid about this and buying something far from perfect for way too much money because I really want to own a house. It just doesn’t make sense.
I wish I could have a rational conversation with my husband about this. He just wants his mother to gift him the money and then we’ll live with his parents for the rest of forever. I want to find a place WE can afford on our salary without his parents living with us. He isn’t willing to consider getting a job that pays more and I can’t commit to earning more than $150k a year for the next 30 years.
My thought is that our best strategy right now is to rent a 2br/2ba and stay there for a few years and wait to see if our savings increases or what happens, but he’s pretty adamant about not renting. He makes me feel pretty crappy about not wanting to commingle my savings with his mother’s money (even if she is “gifting” it to him.) It’s beyond a matter of pride, though that’s part of it. I just want to have flexibility and once we buy with his parents we’re stuck for the next 30 years.
We could rent a 2br/2ba for $4000-$5000 a month now.
We could stay in our 1br for another year (or two, depending on when I get pregnant) — for $2500 a month and continue to save. Once we hit $3M in net worth, I can see putting $600k down on a house as we’re still diversified. But $600k on $1M in networth is too much.
That said, we’ll probably have a recession in the next year or two and our $1M will be worth a lot less. So selling stock now to buy could be a good move… or will housing prices come down with a recession? I wish I had a crystal ball.